Mathematics Probabilityusually ages 9–10

Ordering Likelihoods

Compare the likelihood of different events and order them from least to most likely — including situations with unequal outcomes such as a bag with more of one colour than another, or a spinner with sections of different sizes — and explain reasoning using informal language

How to tell they’ve got it

Tick these off as you see them — no test required.

Order four or more events from least likely to most likely and justify each placement
Compare likelihoods when outcomes are not equally likely — e.g. 'Drawing red from a bag with 7 red and 3 blue is more likely than drawing blue'
Explain why some events are closer to 'even chance' and others are closer to 'certain' or 'impossible'

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Try this together

If a bag has 8 red counters and 2 blue ones, does your child understand that picking red is much more likely than picking blue — and can they put different events in order from least to most likely?

Where this sits on the map

Stuck here? Check the skills it builds on first. Confident? Here’s what it unlocks.

Builds on

Likelihood Languageages 9–10Comparing and ordering likelihoods requires first knowing the vocabulary of likelihood (certain, likely, unlikely, impossible)

Ordering Likelihoodsthis skill · ages 9–10

Unlocks

Equally Likely Outcomesages 9–10Understanding what 'equally likely' means is a specific case of comparing likelihoods that requires the general comparison skill first

solid = must come firstdashed = helps

Curriculum alignment

Candidate matches to official curriculum codes — machine-suggested, unreviewed (v0.1).

Show candidate curriculum codes · 3 ACARA · 1 NSW · 3 VIC

Australian Curriculum v9 candidate

AC9M4P01medium confidenceYear 4 · Probability

describe possible everyday events and the possible outcomes of chance experiments and order outcomes or events based on their likelihood of occurring; identify independent or dependent events

AC9M5P01low confidenceYear 5 · Probability

list the possible outcomes of chance experiments involving equally likely outcomes and compare to those which are not equally likely

AC9M5P02low confidenceYear 5 · Probability

conduct repeated chance experiments including those with and without equally likely outcomes, observe and record the results ; use frequency to compare outcomes and estimate their likelihoods

NSW syllabus codes & stages only

MA3-CHAN-01low confidenceMathematics K-10 · Stage 3

Victorian Curriculum 2.0 codes & levels only

VC2M4P01medium confidenceMathematics · Level 4 · Probability strand

VC2M5P01medium confidenceMathematics · Level 5 · Probability strand

VC2M3P01medium confidenceMathematics · Level 3 · Probability strand

These are candidate alignments generated by semantic matching — machine-suggested and unreviewed (v0.1), not official or verified mappings. For official curriculum content see australiancurriculum.edu.au, curriculum.nsw.edu.au and f10.vcaa.vic.edu.au. Don’t rely on them for registration or compliance purposes.

Nearby on the map

Equally Likely Outcomesages 9–10 Likelihood Languageages 9–10 Probability as a Fractionages 9–10 Simple Chance Experimentsages 9–10

All Probability skills →