How can you tell they’ve got it: Likelihood Language?

If they’ve got it, you’ll see things like: Place five everyday events (e.g. 'the sun will rise tomorrow', 'it will snow in July', 'I'll flip heads') on a scale from impossible to certain; Use 'likely', 'unlikely', 'certain', 'impossible', and 'even chance' correctly to describe different events; Explain why pulling a red ball from a bag of mostly red balls is 'likely' but not 'certain'. Or just try it together: Does your child use words like "certain," "likely," "unlikely," and "impossible" correctly — for example, knowing that rolling a 7 on a normal die is impossible but rolling an even number is likely?

Mathematics Probability Ages 9–10

Likelihood Language

Your child can use words like certain, likely and unlikely. They know rolling a 7 on a normal die can never happen.

In curriculum terms

Use probability language to describe and compare the likelihood of everyday events using words such as certain, likely, even chance, unlikely, impossible

Ages are typical, not deadlines — follow your child’s pace. How to help at home →

How to tell they’ve got it

Tick these off as you see them — no test required.

Place five everyday events (e.g. 'the sun will rise tomorrow', 'it will snow in July', 'I'll flip heads') on a scale from impossible to certain
Use 'likely', 'unlikely', 'certain', 'impossible', and 'even chance' correctly to describe different events
Explain why pulling a red ball from a bag of mostly red balls is 'likely' but not 'certain'

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Try this together

Does your child use words like "certain," "likely," "unlikely," and "impossible" correctly — for example, knowing that rolling a 7 on a normal die is impossible but rolling an even number is likely?

Where this sits on the map

Stuck here? Check the skills it builds on first. Confident? Here’s what it unlocks.

Builds on

Nothing on the map comes before this — it’s a starting point.

Likelihood Languagethis skill · ages 9–10

Unlocks

Ordering Likelihoodsages 9–10Comparing and ordering likelihoods requires first knowing the vocabulary of likelihood (certain, likely, unlikely, impossible)

Simple Chance Experimentsages 9–10Conducting probability experiments and describing results requires knowing the language used to describe likelihood

solid = must come firstdashed = helps

Curriculum alignment

Where this fits in the official school curriculum — our best automated guess, not yet checked by a person.

Show candidate curriculum codes · 3 ACARA · 2 NSW · 3 VIC

Australian Curriculum v9 candidate

AC9M3P01high confidenceYear 3 · Probability

identify practical activities and everyday events involving chance; describe possible outcomes and events as ‘likely’ or ‘unlikely’ and identify some events as ‘certain’ or ‘impossible’ explaining reasoning

AC9M4P01high confidenceYear 4 · Probability

describe possible everyday events and the possible outcomes of chance experiments and order outcomes or events based on their likelihood of occurring; identify independent or dependent events

AC9M5P01medium confidenceYear 5 · Probability

list the possible outcomes of chance experiments involving equally likely outcomes and compare to those which are not equally likely

NSW syllabus codes & stages only

MA3-CHAN-01medium confidenceMathematics K-10 · Stage 3

MA2-CHAN-01low confidenceMathematics K-10 · Stage 2

Victorian Curriculum 2.0 codes & levels only

VC2M3P01high confidenceMathematics · Level 3 · Probability strand

VC2M4P01high confidenceMathematics · Level 4 · Probability strand

VC2M5P01low confidenceMathematics · Level 5 · Probability strand

These are candidate alignments generated by semantic matching — machine-suggested and unreviewed (v0.1), not official or verified mappings. For official curriculum content see australiancurriculum.edu.au, curriculum.nsw.edu.au and f10.vcaa.vic.edu.au. Don’t rely on them for registration or compliance purposes.

Nearby on the map

Equally Likely Outcomesages 9–10 Ordering Likelihoodsages 9–10 Probability as a Fractionages 9–10 Simple Chance Experimentsages 9–10

All Probability skills →