Learning Map
MathematicsProbabilityusually ages 10–11

Experimental vs Theoretical

Run repeated probability experiments and compare experimental (relative frequency) results with theoretical predictions; understand and demonstrate that as the number of trials increases, the experimental probability tends towards the theoretical probability — and that short runs can give very different results

How to tell they’ve got it

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Try this together

If your child flips a coin 10 times and gets 7 heads, do they understand why this doesn't mean heads is "more likely" — and that the more times you flip, the closer the results get to 50:50?

Where this sits on the map

Stuck here? Check the skills it builds on first. Confident? Here’s what it unlocks.

Builds on
Simple Chance Experimentsages 9–10Comparing experimental and theoretical probability requires prior experience conducting simple experiments and recording results
Calculating Simple Probabilityages 10–11Comparing experimental results with theoretical predictions requires being able to calculate the theoretical probability first
Experimental vs Theoreticalthis skill · ages 10–11
Unlocks
Experimental probabilityages 11–13The formal KS3 frequency analysis of experimental probability extends the bridging work on long-run behaviour introduced at age 10-11

solid = must come firstdashed = helps

Curriculum alignment

Candidate matches to official curriculum codes — machine-suggested, unreviewed (v0.1).

Show candidate curriculum codes · 3 ACARA · 2 NSW · 3 VIC

Australian Curriculum v9 candidate

AC9M6P02high confidenceYear 6 · Probability

conduct repeated chance experiments and run simulations with an increasing number of trials using digital tools; compare observations with expected results and discuss the effect on variation of increasing the number of trials

AC9M5P02high confidenceYear 5 · Probability

conduct repeated chance experiments including those with and without equally likely outcomes, observe and record the results ; use frequency to compare outcomes and estimate their likelihoods

AC9M4P02medium confidenceYear 4 · Probability

conduct repeated chance experiments to observe relationships between outcomes; identify and describe the variation in results

NSW syllabus codes & stages only

MA2-CHAN-01medium confidenceMathematics K-10 · Stage 2
MA3-CHAN-01medium confidenceMathematics K-10 · Stage 3

Victorian Curriculum 2.0 codes & levels only

VC2M6P02high confidenceMathematics · Level 6 · Probability strand
VC2M5P02medium confidenceMathematics · Level 5 · Probability strand
VC2M4P02medium confidenceMathematics · Level 4 · Probability strand

These are candidate alignments generated by semantic matching — machine-suggested and unreviewed (v0.1), not official or verified mappings. For official curriculum content see australiancurriculum.edu.au, curriculum.nsw.edu.au and f10.vcaa.vic.edu.au. Don’t rely on them for registration or compliance purposes.

Nearby on the map

All Probability skills →