Learning Map
MathematicsProbabilityusually ages 10–11

Calculating Simple Probability

Calculate the probability of a simple event with equally likely outcomes using the formula: probability = number of favourable outcomes ÷ total number of possible outcomes; express the result as a fraction in its simplest form; apply to rolling dice, drawing from bags, and other simple chance situations

How to tell they’ve got it

Tick these off as you see them — no test required.

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Try this together

If there are 3 red and 7 blue balls in a bag, can your child work out the probability of picking a red one and express it as a fraction in its simplest form?

Where this sits on the map

Stuck here? Check the skills it builds on first. Confident? Here’s what it unlocks.

Builds on
Equally Likely Outcomesages 9–10The probability formula only applies to situations with equally likely outcomes — this concept must be secure first
The 0-to-1 Probability Scaleages 10–11Calculating probability using favourable/total outcomes requires understanding probability as a number on a 0-1 scale
Calculating Simple Probabilitythis skill · ages 10–11
Unlocks
Experimental vs Theoreticalages 10–11Comparing experimental results with theoretical predictions requires being able to calculate the theoretical probability first
The Probability Scaleages 11–13The formal KS3 treatment of probability as a 0-1 scale with fairness and equally-likely outcomes formalises what was practised in the age-10-11 calculation node
Probabilities Sum to Oneages 10–11Using the complement rule is easier once students can calculate basic probabilities and see that favourable + unfavourable outcomes cover all possibilities

solid = must come firstdashed = helps

Curriculum alignment

Candidate matches to official curriculum codes — machine-suggested, unreviewed (v0.1).

Show candidate curriculum codes · 3 ACARA · 1 NSW · 3 VIC

Australian Curriculum v9 candidate

AC9M5P01medium confidenceYear 5 · Probability

list the possible outcomes of chance experiments involving equally likely outcomes and compare to those which are not equally likely

AC9M4P01medium confidenceYear 4 · Probability

describe possible everyday events and the possible outcomes of chance experiments and order outcomes or events based on their likelihood of occurring; identify independent or dependent events

AC9M5P02medium confidenceYear 5 · Probability

conduct repeated chance experiments including those with and without equally likely outcomes, observe and record the results ; use frequency to compare outcomes and estimate their likelihoods

NSW syllabus codes & stages only

MA3-CHAN-01medium confidenceMathematics K-10 · Stage 3

Victorian Curriculum 2.0 codes & levels only

VC2M4P01low confidenceMathematics · Level 4 · Probability strand
VC2M5P01low confidenceMathematics · Level 5 · Probability strand
VC2M6P01low confidenceMathematics · Level 6 · Probability strand

These are candidate alignments generated by semantic matching — machine-suggested and unreviewed (v0.1), not official or verified mappings. For official curriculum content see australiancurriculum.edu.au, curriculum.nsw.edu.au and f10.vcaa.vic.edu.au. Don’t rely on them for registration or compliance purposes.

Nearby on the map

Experimental vs Theoreticalages 10–11 Probabilities Sum to Oneages 10–11 The 0-to-1 Probability Scaleages 10–11 Complementary eventsages 11–13

All Probability skills →